Key takeaways
- Discount rates fell for a fourth consecutive month as markets priced in a September rate cut.
- Equities rebounded to extend their YTD gains after falling sharply at the start of the month. Most pension plans will have experienced relatively no change or a marginal decline in funded status during the month as market returns matched or lagged slightly behind liability growth, depending on asset allocation.
August 2024 summary
Treasury yields moved lower again in August as the market reacted to Fed Chair, Jerome Powell’s indication that the Fed would begin an easing cycle with an initial rate cut in September. While the yield curve remains slightly inverted, yields for shorter duration bonds experienced larger declines than longer duration bonds, with the 10-2 treasury spread approaching zero. Pension liabilities will generally have increased between 2.0% and 3.0% depending on plan characteristics.
August was a tumultuous month for equity investors. Disappointing US economic data including a weak July USjobs report, coupled with an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, shocked equity markets at the onset. Rapid appreciation of the Japanese Yen led to an unwinding of the popular carry trade strategy which relied on borrowing at a low interest rate in the currency. This prompted a brisk sell off of Japanese stocks, with ripple effects spreading to other equity markets. US and international equities ultimately rebounded to post monthly gains, as expectations of future rate cuts following the Fed’s annual meeting eased some apprehension around an economic slowdown in the US. There was some rotation away from the large tech stocks which had been driving returns in US markets to safer value sectors.
While equity returns were positive for the month, returns may not have kept pace with liability increases. Pension plans across the board likely saw little to no change in funded status.
Discount rates & asset returns
FTSE pension discount rate index last 12 months
US Treasury yield curve
The Treasury yield curve shifted lower across all maturities in August. The largest shifts occurred in the 1 and 2–year maturities, which declined by 0.35% and 0.38%. The curve remains inverted, with the 2-year yield equal to the 10-year yield. The next Fed meeting will be held in September. The Fed has indicated that a rate cut can be expected, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming economic data.
The Treasury yield curve shifted lower across all maturities in August. The largest shifts occurred in the 1 and 2-year maturities, which declined by 0.35% and 0.38%. The curve remains inverted, with the 2-year yield equal to the 10-year yield. The next Fed meeting will be held in September. The Fed has indicated that a rate cut can be expected, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming economic data.
August 2024 Investment returns (%)
August was a strong month for International Developed Equities and US Equities, posting gains of 3.25% and 2.18% respectively. Emerging Markets Equities made a gain of 1.61%. Within US Equities, Consumer Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care were leaders, with respective gains of 5.9%, 5.8%, and 5.1%. Energy was the worst performing sector, losing 1.7%. Fixed Income experienced positive returns as interest rates continued to fall, with long-duration bonds outperforming short-duration bonds. The US dollar index fell 2.31%, and the price of gold gained 2.36%. Credit spreads tightened slightly relative to July month end.